JOHANNESBURG- Early fuel price projections indicate slight increases in petrol prices and minimal changes to diesel costs for South African motorists starting January 2025, according to the latest Central Energy Fund data.

South African motorists face an expected increase of 11 cents per liter for 93 octane petrol and three cents for 95 octane petrol from January 7, 2025, while diesel prices are projected to remain largely stable.

The Central Energy Fund’s latest data, released on December 17, shows diesel prices could see a marginal decrease of up to three cents per liter, while illuminating paraffin is expected to drop by 14 cents per liter.

“Market conditions remain highly volatile due to ongoing fluctuations in both the rand-dollar exchange rate and international oil prices,” a Central Energy Fund spokesperson said in a statement.

The projected changes come as Brent crude oil trades at $73.49 per barrel, while the rand exchanges at R18.07 against the US dollar.

Recent weakness in the South African rand against the dollar has contributed to the anticipated price adjustments, following earlier increases in both petrol and diesel prices this month due to Middle East tensions affecting global oil markets.

The Automobile Association of South Africa spokesperson Robert Wilson said these modest adjustments would bring some relief to consumers. “While we’re seeing small increases in petrol prices, the stability in diesel costs is welcome news for the transport sector and could help moderate inflationary pressures.”

The price modifications reflect South Africa’s dual dependency on international factors, with fuel costs primarily determined by global petroleum product prices and the rand-dollar exchange rate used for purchases.

Industry analysts note that coastal regions typically enjoy slightly lower fuel prices compared to inland areas due to transport costs. “The difference in prices between coastal and inland regions remains significant, with Gauteng motorists paying approximately R1.30 more per liter than their coastal counterparts,” explained energy analyst Sarah Mohamed.

The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy has emphasized that these projections remain subject to change based on market dynamics over the remaining days of December.

For commercial transport operators, the relative stability in diesel prices offers some predictability for early 2025 operational planning. “The transport industry can breathe a small sigh of relief as diesel prices remain stable, helping maintain current delivery costs,” said John van der Merwe, chairperson of the Road Freight Association.

Final price adjustments will be confirmed in early January, with new rates taking effect at midnight on January 7, 2025.